Women and regional workers will be hit hardest by future job losses unless retail brands cooperate more to create an experience-led high street and upskill the retail workforce for the age of automation, a think-tank warns.
‘Retail Therapy: towards a future of good work in retail’ from the Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (RSA) finds high levels of precarity for workers in the retail industry, but also a growing customer appetite for innovation.
RSA analysis of government data reveals that 108,000 jobs were lost in sales and customer service roles between 2011 and 2018, 75,000 of whom were women [see Notes].
Over the same time period, ‘process, plant and machine operator’ jobs increased by 40,000, of which 31,000 were taken by men, indicating the new warehouse and distribution jobs being created by Amazon and others are being taken by men, and are not replacing customer services roles typically held by women.
The North East and the East Midlands have fared the worst during this period – both have suffered an 11% drop in the number of total retail jobs. In the same period, retail jobs in London climbed by 16%.
Changes in retail jobs by region (RSA analysis of Labour Force Survey)
Employment in retail (2018) |
Net change (2011-18) |
Percentage change (2011-18) |
|
East Midlands |
184,590 |
-22,553 |
-11% |
North East |
105,460 |
-12,671 |
-11% |
East of England |
242,531 |
-27,228 |
-10% |
Yorkshire and Humberside |
237,976 |
-23,457 |
-9% |
South West |
228,930 |
-20,640 |
-8% |
Scotland |
250,962 |
-22,226 |
-8% |
South East |
401,277 |
-7,039 |
-2% |
West Midlands |
253,900 |
7,814 |
3% |
Wales |
139,420 |
6,783 |
5% |
North West |
337,577 |
21,703 |
7% |
London |
354,693 |
47,651 |
16% |
The report suggests the retail industry has an acute challenge with ‘one-sided flexibility' - with retail workers suffering from zero-hours contracts and inconsistent working hours. According to a recent Populus poll commissioned by the RSA [see Notes] 38% of retail workers are worried about changes to their job that will reduce their working hours, compared to 29% for all workers.
Working with major retailers such as Ikea, John Lewis and Tesco the RSA produced three possible scenarios for the UK’s retail industry in 2035:
The Empathy Economy
|
The Precision Economy
|
The Big Tech Economy
|
This analysis is based on the RSA’s Four Futures of Work, released earlier this year, which used scenario-planning to envisage for possible futures for the UK economy in 2035.
The report also argues that the physical high street will survive – as long as retailers refocus their offer upon exciting in-store experiences and more empathetic customer services.
To solve chronically low productivity in the retail sector, the report argues employers need to refocus efforts towards life-long learning and re-training. Greater access to skills training could also future-proof retail careers from automation.
The report also calls for a high streets ‘sandbox’, which would allow for retailers and civil society groups to experiment with new initiatives which may otherwise be stopped by red-tape. This would be place-based, community-led, and would require collaboration between competing retailers.
Fabian Wallace-Stephens, researcher at the RSA’s Future Work Centre, said:
“Our research shows that the economic pain that comes with the decline of the high street is not being felt evenly. As ever more people are shopping online, and businesses are introducing automated technology like self-service checkouts, this is changing the types of jobs available. Women are being hit particularly hard, with jobs growth being contained to roles usually filled by men such as delivery drivers.
"That said, we are optimistic that the high street’s decline can be reversed. If retailers collaborate more with each other, offer exciting in-store experiences and make customer service roles higher skilled – with staff becoming more like in-store 'influencers' – then we still see a vibrant future for the British high street.”
Edward Story, partner and head of the Consumer and Retail sector group at international law firm Taylor Wessing, added:
"Recent times have seen some of our most-loved and notable brands struggle to survive in a tough and highly competitive operating environment. This is sobering news for consumers and workers in the sector who face uncertainty and the real prospect of job loss.
"On the surface, the outlook is rough. However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Arguably retail is the sector most enhanced and disrupted by technology and the online revolution. For many retailers this has yielded opportunities to connect with new markets, engage with customers in fresh ways, revolutionise how they do business and change working practices. There is a bright future ahead for the British High Street if it can leverage innovative technology to ensure its survival."
ends
Contact:
Ash Singleton, RSA Head of Media and Communications: ash.singleton@rsa.org.uk, 07799 737 970.
Will Grimond, RSA Media and Communications Officer, will.grimond@rsa.org.uk, 07972470135
Matthew Clark, PR & Communications Adviser, Taylor Wessing, 07587 039822.
Notes:
The RSA [the Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce] is an independent charity whose mission is to enrich society through ideas and action.
Our work covers a number of areas including the rise of the 'gig economy', robotics & automation; education & creative learning; and reforming public services to put communities in control.
About Taylor Wessing
Taylor Wessing is the trading name used by a number of law firms providing professional services to clients around the world and by other related entities. Each law firm is a separate and independent legal entity or partnership and a member of or affiliated to a member of Taylor Wessing Verein. Taylor Wessing Verein does not itself provide any legal or other services to clients. Further information can be found on our regulatory page at www.taylorwessing.com/en/regulatory
Taylor Wessing is a leading full-service international law firm with over 350 partners and 1100 lawyers in 19 jurisdictions around the world. We work with clients in the most dynamic industries helping them succeed by thinking innovatively about their business issues. Our focus on the industries of tomorrow has enabled us to develop market-leading expertise in: Technology, Media and Communications, Life Sciences and Private Wealth.
Changes in retail jobs – RSA data analysis methodology
The RSA analysis of changing nature of jobs in retail sector was conducted using Labour Force Survey data from the UK Data Service (https://ukdataservice.ac.uk). Analysis compares Oct-Dec quarter between 2011 and 2018 for SIC 47 Retail trade, except vehicles.
Table 1: changes in retail jobs by gender and occupation group (RSA analysis of Labour Force Survey)
Men employed in retail (2018) |
Net change in men employed in retail (2011-18) |
Women employed in retail (2018) |
Net change in women employed in retail (2011-18) |
Total employment in retail (2018) |
Net change in total retail employment (2011-18) |
Percentage change in retail employment (2011-18) |
|
Managers, Directors And Senior Officials |
222,826 |
-19,295 |
138,436 |
-16,702 |
361,262 |
-35,997 |
-9% |
Professional Occupations' |
52,036 |
-1,070 |
38,978 |
-5,975 |
91,014 |
-7,045 |
-7% |
Associate Professional And Technical Occupations' |
71,863 |
9,440 |
97,578 |
-2,702 |
169,441 |
6,738 |
4% |
Administrative And Secretarial Occupations' |
52,725 |
10,765 |
128,475 |
3,513 |
181,200 |
14,278 |
9% |
Skilled Trades Occupations' |
75,318 |
5,589 |
35,668 |
2,396 |
110,986 |
7,985 |
8% |
Caring, Leisure And Other Service Occupations' |
4,483 |
222 |
14,815 |
7,405 |
19,298 |
7,627 |
65% |
Sales And Customer Service Occupations' |
455,521 |
-33,317 |
969,866 |
-75,108 |
1,425,387 |
-108,425 |
-7% |
Process, Plant And Machine Operatives' |
96,136 |
31,236 |
20,705 |
9,150 |
116,841 |
40,386 |
53% |
Elementary Occupations' |
197,008 |
-7,045 |
120,141 |
-13,585 |
317,149 |
-20,630 |
-6% |
Total |
1,227,916 |
-3,475 |
1,564,662 |
-91,608 |
2,792,578 |
-95,083 |
-3% |
Related news
-
Groundbreaking commission to supercharge East Midlands launched
The RSA and the East Midlands Combined County Authority have launched the Inclusive Growth Commission, which will identify and action radical plans to unleash potential and supercharge prosperity in communities across the East Midlands.
-
Landmark new report to unleash potential of UK as a creative superpower
The RSA, Arts Council England and the Creative PEC have launched a new report setting out a bold vision for the UK’s creative industries unlocking tens of billions of pounds in economic potential and cementing the UK’s reputation as a creative superpower.
-
‘Muse’ at RSA House: the new cocktail oasis tucked away behind the bustling strand
The new luxury cocktail bar will open its doors this November, serving sustainable, British cocktails in collaboration with Idyll Drinks.
Be the first to write a comment
Comments
Please login to post a comment or reply
Don't have an account? Click here to register.